Psephology

I just came across this word. If you know what it means, then you are either a PHD in English or you have no friends. The simple definition is “The scientific study of elections”.

But wait, isn’t this a contradiction in terms? What is “scientific” about “elections”? I would argue that a Psephologist is doomed to a fruitless search for objective reality in a world where elections take place in a shifting, argumentative, ideological, subjective stew of ignorance. Where is the science?

E=MC squared. 2+2=4. Force equals mass times acceleration. Water expands when it freezes. This is objective reality. What is objective, quantifiable and scientific about a voter’s decision?  What about polls? These are nothing but random samplings of subjective feelings and many times miss the mark. What about campaign finances? Doesn’t money subsidize elections? But where is the science that equates money to the elected? But doesn’t the economy predict statewide, congressional and presidential election results? Sometimes yes and sometimes no. What about social issues – abortion, immigration, education, welfare, DEI?  Can they sway elections? Yes, but where is the predictive science? And, almost as an afterthought, what about prior election statistics? The 2024 elections violated almost all statistical predictions.

So, if we rule out the validity or accuracy of scientific election predictions, what is left? In a constitutional republic such as ours, what is left is the aggregate and unenforced individual opinions of our free citizens. So, opinions rule. But where do they come from and how can they be measured? We, as human beings and as consequent voters, are the sum total of all our experiences, education, ideologies and influences. If we have a reasonable education, if we know the language, if we follow the Constitution, if we keep abreast of unbiased local and international news, we have an informed opinion. Unfortunately, many voters don’t meet these qualifications.

What is the greatest threat to America -  right now, today? I’ll give you some clues: racism, white supremacy, inequity, liberalism, conservatism, capitalism, socialism, global warming, social injustice, Critical Race Theory, collapsing economy, secularism, Christianity, guns, education, poverty, the border, divisiveness? If you pick any one of these, or any collection thereof, you would be wrong. The greatest threat to America is ignorance.

Ignorance is not an evil in itself. If you don’t know anything about the Pythagorean Theorem, Fourier Series or Quantum Mechanics you are not a bad or stupid person. You just didn’t have the opportunity, the inclination, or the time to learn about them. You are not alone. You are like most people. These topics, like so many others, have no direct bearing on your life, happiness or well-being. But there is a range of topics that do have a direct influence on your life, your happiness, your well-being and the direction of your country. They are mentioned above. They all contribute to your happiness, your awareness, your view of life in this country and your vote as a citizen. But if you don’t know about the various sides of these topics, about the truth of their pronouncements and the short and long term effects on your country – you are ignorant and therein lies the threat.

Thomas Jefferson wrote “If we are to guard against ignorance and remain free, it is the responsibility of every American to be informed." Remaining free is vital if we are to follow and perfect the dictates and promise of the Declaration. How do we remain free in this Democratic Republic? It is by an informed vote. It is by examining the issues. It is by listening to both sides of the issues. It is by discussion with opposing sides. It is by a combination of an emotional and informed logical approach to the issues. Unfortunately, too many of our electorate are ignorant on these issues and certainly would be called out by Jefferson. It is so easy to say “I’m not political. All politicians are BS artists. My vote has no effect.” If you are in this group you will remain ignorant and the course of this country may be determined by forces you will come to despise.

In the current day, reporting bias is apparent and verifiable. Around 95% of the mainstream media elite are Democrats. This is verifiable by voter registrations and by recorded political contributions. The bias is also verifiable by organizations which report on the percentage of reporting either favorable or unfavorable to then President Trump and his administration. Across news organizations such as CNN, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, NPR, the NYT and WAPO the overwhelming reportage, in the high 90 percentile, has been unfavorable to former President Trump, this in spite of the many successes of the Trump administration which go unreported.

What has this got to do with “ignorance” as a voting opinion? If your primary, or only, source of political and social information is the biased mainstream media cited above, then your vote will most likely go in their direction. You are ignorant. You are ignorant of the other side. You are inclined to believe what they tell you because you never hear the “other side”. If you choose to be ignorant of the other side because it might challenge your opinions or preconceived positions, then you are willfully ignorant. In either case – just plain ignorant or willfully ignorant – your vote is controlled by the mainstream media and not by examination of both sides of these important issues. In this case you have robbed yourself of an informed vote. This is why ignorance is the greatest threat to America. There is no Psephology here.